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You need to fulfill your resource stockpile quotas before it arrives. The trick/surprise with The Arks is that you know the storm is coming from the start, but you don't actually get to play through it unlike in A New Home.
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Of those, people generally consider Winterhome and Last Autumn to be the hardest ones, so you should play those last. On The Edge: What if your settlement couldn't survive by itself and had to rely on other settlements? The Last Autumn: What if you had to learn new mechanics while you build a Generator? The Fall of Winterhome: What if the city starts as an absolute disaster that you need to salvage? The Refugees: What if you had too many people? The Arks: What if you didn't have enough people? By scenario, here's their relative deals in comparison to A New Home: Roughly equal, I'd say? The Arks has less narrative surprises and is more focused on efficiency.
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